Is opinion polling broken?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. On the programme:Last week, Annunziata Rees-Mogg took to X to post a claim about the proportion of sex offences in Dorset that are committed by asylum seekers, writing that “asylum seekers make up 0.8% of Dorset’s populati ...  Show more

It’s said that AI could soon be coming for the jobs of artists, lawyers, and software engineers. But it might now also be threatening a role at the height of academia – are pure mathematicians safe? Last month, a Stanford mathematician woke up to an email, claiming to have the so ...  Show more

Pollsters are starting to panic. There’s headline after headline after headline ahead of the midterms on whether this election cycle’s polling is accurate or not. How does polling actually work? Is it really representative of how voters are feeling and what the outcome will be on ...  Show more

American voters still say the economy is their most important electoral issue, and a growing number are less than pleased with Joe Biden’s economic management. The FT’s deputy Washington bureau chief, Lauren Fedor, and the vice-president of North Star Opinion Research, Jon McH ...

The presidential opposition candidate Joe Biden has barely emerged from his home since America’s lockdown at the end of March. But polls suggest that the low-key strategy is working in his favour – as his rival President Donald Trump comes under increasing pressure over his handl ...  Show more

In the last few days of Australia’s federal election campaign we’ve seen the polls tighten and Labor’s lead shrink. Guardian Australia political editor Katharine Murphy and the executive director of Essential, Peter Lewis, unpack the Guardian Essential poll. As undecided voters s ...  Show more