What Does 3.5% Inflation Really Mean?

The progression from Alan Greenspan to Kevin Warsh is not simply a change in personality. It reflects four different views of how much the Federal Reserve should shape market expectations.At one end is the belief that ambiguity preserves flexibility. At the other is the belief th ...  Show more

It’s rare that I get wrapped up in the news cycle. I’m not a news junkie. But this week, something crossed my desk that I simply could not ignore. We all lived through the pandemic and were presented with data from the media that did not always line up with basic science. Those s ...  Show more

After another Fed meeting and another historically high rate hike, it’s clear that the Fed is committed to fighting inflation, but how and when will the real economy see the effects? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter discuss.< ...

Last week was a big one. On Tuesday, we got a CPI report that came in substantially cooler than expected. Then on Wednesday, the Fed hiked 50 basis points, which was a step down from the series of 75 basis point hikes that we had been getting at recent meetings. So where do thing ...  Show more

The expectation of increased inflation is stirring concerns among investors, but the actual market for expected inflation suggests the Fed is on the right track.

The US economy has so far withstood the effects of higher interest rates a lot better than expected. Unemployment is still at historic lows, even while inflation has cooled and the Federal Reserve has hiked rates for about 18 months. That's not how things are supposed to work acc ...  Show more