285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Ra...

It's possible to look at the course of history over the past few centuries and discern a movement toward increasing democracy, freedom, and individual rights -- "liberalism," in the political-philosophy sense of the term. But such movement isn't inevitable or irreversible, and in ...  Show more

For all that human beings spend a lot of their time thinking, it's far from obvious what that process actually entails. Part of it amounts to classical logical reasoning. But an even bigger part involves reasoning with probability and uncertainty. And some of it is governed by un ...  Show more

Quite often the ideas of 'risk' and of 'uncertainty' get bandied about interchangeably, but there's a world of difference between them and it matters greatly when that distinction gets lost.

That's a key message from <a href= "https://www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/staff/gerd-g ...

Nate Silver (On the Edge, The Signal and the Noise, Baseball Between the Numbers) is a statistician, author, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate joins the Armchair Expert to discuss his youthful aspirations for a starter job as US president with a promotion to baseball commis ...

Sam Harris speaks with Nate Silver about cultural attitudes toward risk and the state of American politics. They discuss the erosion of trust in liberal institutions, polling and political narratives, different camps of cultural elites, the influence of Silicon Valley, Peter T ...

Making good predictions is tough. We think we know more than we do and let emotions and biases creep in. How do some forecasters beat the odds? Our hosts, Nico and Sam, chat about the book "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver exploring why predictions fail and uncovering pra ...  Show more