Lessons from the Rowdy VIX

Today’s market landscape is defined by extremes that challenge conventional portfolio construction. A small group of mega-cap stocks now represents an unprecedented share of index weight, profit generation, and capital spending, raising important questions about valuation, divers ...  Show more

As I share my closing thoughts on 2025, I want to look back with an eye towards pointing out this year’s unique characteristics from a market risk perspective. I start this exercise by highlighting what I consider to be 2025’s three most interesting days from a vol and risk persp ...  Show more

Steven Bell has seen the macro machine from every angle - Treasury insider, hedge fund manager, and chief economist. In this wide-ranging conversation with Alan Dunne, he traces the quiet erosion of economic orthodoxy and why AI, not tariffs, may prove the more destabilizing forc ...  Show more

Following President Trump’s ‘pause’ announcement yesterday, US And Asian equity indices experienced a relief rally of historic proportions. The punitive tariffs imposed on dozens of countries have now been swapped for a universal 10% rate, but only for 90 days. It remains to b ...

Volatility is back just in time for the October scaries as new tariff threats rattle investors just as the markets reached new record highs. Is this a re-do of the April selloff, or the beginning of the bursting of a bubble in risky assets? Barry Ritholtz the original Blog-Father ...  Show more

In January of 2023, a time where extreme pessimism on stocks and the economy reigned, Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, shared his bullish outlook on equities with Jack. Now that his prediction has come true, Sam returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is much les ...  Show more