Can You Predict an Election?

Can You Predict an Election?

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Are the Democrats heading for a midterms landslide?

How confident should Democrats be about surprise new polling which puts them ahead in deep Republican territory? In states such as Kansas which haven’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932, Democrat candidates are doing well - why is that, and how much can we trust the polls? ...  Show more

Did Trump really say Iran could “take out” Los Angeles?

The president has started a war of words with California Governor Gavin Newsom after saying that Iran could “take out” Los Angeles and San Diego. Trump made the comments during his midterms campaign tour, telling the audience it would be “very small price to pay” in the war. News ...  Show more

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Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the sta ...

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