The Importance of Navigation in the Dark

One of the benefits of my marathon training is that, most weekends, I get to jog over the Newton and Wellesley hills with my running buddy, John, who happens to be a financial advisor. Over the course of three hours we solve the problems of the world, reviewing them with dour pes ...  Show more

Three weeks ago, I wrote an article entitled Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook in which I outlined a baseline forecast for 2026 and into 2027, amidst many distortions and entanglements in economic data and trends. So much has happened since then, including a raft of ne ...  Show more

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Mon ...  Show more

While inflation has eased in recent months, rent costs are still running above pre-pandemic norms. What’s driving the strength in rental markets, and what are the implications for inflation going forward? Join Phoebe White, Head of U.S. Inflation Strategy, and Antho ...

Highlights from some of the most interesting conversations on The Breakdown from the last two months.  4/1 - Peter Zeihan on why the world we’ve known for 30 years is changing forever 4/6 - Emerson Spartz on a moment of punctuated equilibrium  4/17 - Jared Dillian on the ...  Show more

Last night, President Donald Trump posted a letter firing Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook. The reason? She was accused of listing two properties as her primary residences, which potentially gave her more favorable lending terms. This marks another escalation in the presi ...  Show more