Investing in a Divergent Economy

The Financial Accounts of the United States is a quarterly Federal Reserve publication containing a great many large numbers but very little commentary, presumably because the authors feel the numbers speak for themselves. And the numbers do speak rather loudly. 

In 19th century English novels, so-called “quarter days” often provided a chronological backdrop to the plot. A relic of medieval times, the quarter days were Lady Day (March 25th), Midsummer Day (June 24th), Michaelmas (September 29th) and Christmas Day (December 25th). These we ...  Show more

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Mon ...  Show more

While inflation has eased in recent months, rent costs are still running above pre-pandemic norms. What’s driving the strength in rental markets, and what are the implications for inflation going forward? Join Phoebe White, Head of U.S. Inflation Strategy, and Antho ...

Economists say that inflation is just too much money chasing too few goods.But something else can make inflation stick around.If you think of the 1970s, the last time the U.S. had really high sustained inflation, a big concern was rising wages. Prices for goods and services were ...  Show more

Highlights from some of the most interesting conversations on The Breakdown from the last two months.  4/1 - Peter Zeihan on why the world we’ve known for 30 years is changing forever 4/6 - Emerson Spartz on a moment of punctuated equilibrium  4/17 - Jared Dillian on the ...  Show more