The Rebasement Trade

In this episode, Alf and Brent talk about the Fed's likely reaction function to incoming data and the Bessent/Japan accord on the JPY. The duo then discusses one of the trickiest questions for macro PMs: when to use options, and how to size them? 

Alf and Brent discuss the significant market reaction to Warsh's press conference: the Fed handed over the keys to the bond market, and now Bond Vigilantes are in charge until data comes in to set the direction straight for everyone. How to handle such a market environment? 

U.S. President Donald Trump’s budget bill is likely to bake in outsized deficits for years to come. Host Carmel Crimmins talks to Reuters columnist Mike Dolan about what that means for U.S. debt levels and the wider economy. Plus, the anxiety stalking treasury markets. Sign up fo ...  عرض المزيد

This week, we’ve looked at the budget reconciliation bill and its effects on student debt, taxes, health care and social programs. The bill is currently moving through the Senate. Today, we discuss the reconciliation bill and the national deficit. And we dig into other proposals ...  عرض المزيد

The House is set to vote on whether to advance Biden’s massive $1.9 trillion social safety net bill. The vote comes after a key Congressional Budget Office analysis which found the bill would add billions of dollars to the deficit. Does speaker Pelosi have the votes to pass this ...  عرض المزيد

There’s been a lot of talk about the ever-growing U.S. federal deficit lately. That discussion has largely revolved around spending cuts. But the flip side of the issue— that is, increasing revenue — is largely ignored. We’ll get into what increasing the government’s revenue coul ...  عرض المزيد